Etsy Annual Revenue Forecast

Monthly growth rate is the percentage by which your order volume compounds each month. A 5% monthly rate means if you had 100 orders in month 1, you would have 105 in month 2, 110 in month 3, and so on (compounding). Zero means flat — the same volume every month. Use the average monthly growth rate visible in your Etsy Stats → Orders trend for the last 3–6 months as a starting point. If your shop is brand new with no data, try 3–5% as a reasonable first-year assumption for an actively managed shop.

Each month applies three standard Etsy fees to every order: the 6.5% transaction fee (on the item price), the 3% + $0.25 payment processing fee, and the $0.20 listing renewal fee charged each time a listing sells. If you enable the Offsite Ads toggle, an additional 15% fee is applied to revenue attributed to Offsite Ad clicks. All rates are verified as of June 2026 against Etsy's published seller fee schedule. Shipping charges to buyers are not included — add them to your average order value if your listings show a combined item + shipping total in Etsy Stats.

COGS is your direct cost per order — materials and packaging for handmade items, or the base product cost (what Printify/Printful charges you) for print-on-demand. Do not include your time (use the Profit-Per-Hour Calculator for that), Etsy advertising spend, or fixed overhead like subscriptions. For digital downloads where no physical goods are produced, COGS is typically $0. The calculator deducts COGS × orders from gross revenue after fees to produce net profit.

The fee math is exact — every dollar of revenue, transaction fee, payment fee, and listing renewal is calculated using verified Etsy rates. The accuracy of the revenue forecast itself depends entirely on the growth rate you enter; compound growth models are a simplification. Real Etsy shops experience seasonal swings (Q4 is typically 30–50% higher than Q2), platform algorithm changes, and listing-level variation that a single growth rate cannot capture. Treat the output as a planning range, not a guarantee. Pair it with a conservative rate (e.g., 0%) and an optimistic rate (e.g., 5–10%) to bracket the realistic outcome.

Because compound growth accelerates over time. A 5% monthly growth rate results in (1.05)^11 ≈ 1.71× more orders in month 12 than month 1 — a 71% increase over the year. This is why small monthly growth rates have a dramatic effect at the end of the period: 3% monthly compounding produces about 43% more orders by month 12, and 10% monthly compounding produces about 185% more. If your growth rate input feels optimistic, try 0% or 1% for a conservative baseline.

Etsy fee math alone (transaction + payment + listing) removes roughly 10–12% of revenue before COGS. For print-on-demand shops with base costs of $10–$14 and selling prices of $22–$35, net margins of 30–50% are typical. Handmade shops with higher materials cost or lower prices often see tighter margins — 20–40% is common. Digital download shops (zero COGS) can retain 85–90% of revenue as profit. These are gross ranges; your time, advertising spend, and shipping costs will reduce them further.

This calculator uses a uniform monthly growth rate, which does not model seasonal peaks. Etsy sellers typically see their highest order volumes in October–December (holiday shopping) and the lowest in January–February. If you want to model seasonality, you can manually note that Q4 months may run 1.3–1.5× the forecast and Q1 may run 0.7–0.8×. For planning purposes, run the forecast at 0% growth first to establish a flat baseline, then use the Monthly P&L Calculator to model individual months with different order counts.

The fee structure (6.5% + 3% + $0.25 + $0.20/listing) is specific to Etsy. The compound growth model and the overall revenue/profit structure are generic, but the fee line items are Etsy-only. Use the POD Profit Calculator or the standalone Fee Calculator for other platforms like Shopify, Amazon Handmade, or eBay, and compare the annual totals you get from equivalent inputs.